Monday, October 21, 2013

Great Autumn Days Ahead!

After a disagreeable start to Saturday, the rains ended early as promised, with slow clearing through the latter half of the day. And the big pay-off arrived Sunday – boy, what a beauty! But unfortunately, the nice stuff didn’t last long as Titan9 Doppler was showing a few showers this morning in the coastal parishes. And through the afternoon, the extent of the rain coverage has expanded, especially over the southern parishes. As of 4PM, we’re seeing some light showers working their way into the greater BR metro area.
Most of today’s rains are tied to a warm/quasi-stationary front over the north-central Gulf along with a developing area of low pressure on the western end of that front. At the same time, our next autumn cool front is approaching from the northwest. Rain accumulations could get into the 0.25” to 0.50” range for some coastal areas, but most WAFB viewers will likely see only about a tenth-of-an-inch of rain between this afternoon and Tuesday morning. In fact, some WAFB neighborhoods will see little rain at all over the next 12-18 hours.
The surface low developing over the northwestern Gulf should remain well offshore as it moves east overnight and tomorrow. At the same time, the trailing end of the advancing cool front should work its way through the WAFB viewing area early Tuesday morning. For metro Baton Rouge, we’ve got rain chances running at just 30% or so through the overnight and early on Tuesday, with skies clearing during the latter half of Tuesday. Clearing may be a little slower along the coast and to the east of the Capital City, but even there all should be looking good by the late afternoon or early evening.
After Tuesday morning’s showers taper-off and the clouds clear-out, the weather “Wow!”factor returns.
Our latest forecast remains “dry” for Wednesday and right through the upcoming weekend, with metro BR enjoying superb autumn days: lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, highs in the 70s, and mainly sunny days with no humidity to speak of!
And in the tropics, this morning’s “Invest 90L” was upgraded to Tropical Depression #13 at 10AM ... and was upgraded again to Tropical Storm LORENZO at 4PM, the 12th ‘named’ storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. LORENZO is located over the west-central Northern Atlantic with the current forecast guidance taking the tropical storm off to the northeast. That means LORENZO stays over open water and will be no threat to land. The latest National Hurricane Center projections indicate that strong shear should result in the demise of LORENZO later this week.

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