Monday, October 28, 2013

Warm, Mainly Dry Through Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Sunday was a little damper than we had expected, although most neighborhoods saw little more than a trace of rain over the course of the morning and mid-afternoon.  In fact, for many, the skies cleared nicely for the late afternoon and evening.
While today was a decent October day, we say “goodbye!” -- at least for the time being -- to the comfortably cool weather that was the last week’s highlight.  In fact, with the exception of frontal weather that resulted in a wet Saturday on October 19th, the last ten days or so have been quite nice.  Up until today, daily highs topped-out in the 70°s each day since October 17th, with daily average temperatures running below-the-norm for 11 straight days.  And how about those extra cool mornings of October 24-26, when morning minimums dipped into the 40°s at BR’s Metro Airport and into the upper 30°s for some of WAFB northern communities?  Nice ... you bet!
We’ll have mornings in the 60°s and highs in the 80°s for most or this work week as “return flow” delivers Gulf moisture and Gulf warmth through Thursday and into early Friday.  In fact, some of us could see upper 80°s for highs on Wednesday as we await the arrival of the next autumn front.
And unfortunately for the little Ghosts and Goblins, the timing of that next front may get in the way of Halloween evening fun!

The current guidance places a fairly-quick-moving Pacific cool front over the Southern Plains on Thursday morning with that front draped over Southeast Louisiana by Friday morning’s sunrise.  That set-up means that for Thursday evening -- Halloween’s “haunting hours” -- the WAFB area will be in the warm sector just ahead of the advancing front.  As a result -- as of this afternoon -- we’re posting “rain likely” for Thursday evening and late Thursday into early Friday.
A few t-storms on Thursday evening are likely to be a part of the local “weather equation.”  While widespread severe weather does not appear to be a major concern, we can’t rule out one or two strong to severe storms somewhere in the extended WAFB region during the evening and late night.
Okay, there are still a couple of days to go while we fine-tune the Thursday evening forecast, but we want the parents to start preparing for -- and thinking about -- an “indoor Plan B” for the youngsters if “Trick or Treating” is in the family game plan.
The way it’s looking now, our pay-off for a wet Thursday will be a fine weekend.  The extended outlook currently indicates fair skies for both Saturday and Sunday with highs both days back in the 70°s.

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