Sunday, October 13, 2013

Weather Changes by Mid-Week

Rains late Saturday evening and into the early hours on Sunday produced a few pockets of one-quarter to one-half inch rains around much of metro Baton Rouge but totals rose quickly as you moved west, reaching as high as around two inches in the Lafayette area. Thankfully today’s weather was fairly quiet day across most of the WAFB viewing area, with just spotty showers popping up during the afternoon.
A weak cool front will try to sag into the southern parishes later tonight, but will stall and quickly retreat to the north as a warm front. So don’t expect it to have much of an impact on our weather and don’t be looking for a cool-down or drop in the humidity.
We’re sticking with a mainly dry forecast for Monday and only spotty showers for Tuesday. After morning starts for both days in the mid 60°s, we’ll call for highs to return to the upper 80°s for most WAFB neighborhoods with the humidity giving Monday and Tuesday afternoons an “almost summer” feel.
Our next cool front is currently positioned over the western U.S. and will move across the Southern Plains from Monday into late Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, the NWS guidance has this “Pacific” front (cool air, but not as cool nor as “dry” as a Canadian air mass) moving into northern Louisiana and headed our way.
The exact timing remains a little “ticklish” right now, but it looks like the front should be through most of the WAFB are by Thursday morning and positioned over the coastal waters by early Friday. That scenario set us up for scattered showers and storms from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Normally such a set-up would lead to a nice looking Friday. However, the extended outlook suggests that a bona fide Canadian front will be following on the heels of the Pacific front, with the even-cooler and “drier” (less humid) Canadian air arriving on Saturday. However, the double-barrel, back-to-back frontal passages will mean that the weather remains a bit unsettled in-between on Friday.
So we’ll keep a chance of rain in the forecast for the first half of Saturday, but really cool things down for next Sunday!
In the tropics, a weak disturbance -- Invest 98L -- shows little potential for development in the short-term with the National Hurricane Center giving this low-pressure area just a 10% chance for becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

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