Monday, October 14, 2013

Changes Ahead Later This Week

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Even with northeast winds and fair skies for much of the overnight and pre-dawn hours, it just couldn’t cool down quite as much as Jay had expected -- lows only dipped into the upper 60°s instead of the mid 60°s as forecasted.  However, those warmer-than-expected sunrise temps put the brakes on any real concerns about for the morning commute.

Just about everyone stayed dry today and we will stay that way through the night.  Look for Tuesday wake-up temps in the mid to upper 60°s once again under partly cloudy skies.  And like today, most will remain dry through Tuesday as highs return to the upper 80°s.  Notice that we’re saying “most will stay dry” for Tuesday as we will toss spotty showers into the afternoon mix, but put those chances at less than 20%.
The weather starts a run of changes headed into Wednesday.
We expect a cool front to work its way into northwestern Louisiana late Tuesday and approach our viewing area by Wednesday morning.   The front is expected to take it’s time moving through south Louisiana, traveling from central Louisiana to the coastal waters from Wednesday into early Thursday.  That should keep our weather unsettled for both days.  Most of our guidance is calling for only scattered showers, with little or no threat for active or severe storms.  In addition, we expect Wednesday/Thursday rain accumulations to come in at well under one inch for most or all of the viewing area.  We’ll go with rain chances at 30% to 40% for Wednesday, then run them at 30% for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

That front should continue to move slowly southward and out over the northern Gulf by Friday, while a second cool front approaches Louisiana from the north.  This second front -- which is currently on-schedule to arrive sometime around mid-day or so on Saturday -- should help maintain a more fall-like feel following its passage.  But like the earlier frontal passage on Wednesday/Thursday, the current long-range outlooks suggest that Saturday’s front will not be very energetic either.  Once again, we currently see little if any threat for any active storms or severe weather with the weekend front.  And, just like the mid-week front, we’re keeping weekend rain chances on the modest side as the front moves by.
The one remaining question about the weekend front is the Sunday outlook: some of the guidance suggests lingering, isolated showers into the Sunday forecast.  Let’s watch and see how that outlook shapes up over the coming days, but our hunch is that Sunday should be a fairly nice day.

In the tropics, satellite imagery is showing a pair of weak disturbances in the Atlantic Basin -- one located east of the Bahamas and the other to the east of the Lesser Antilles.  Neither is of any serious concern at this time, with the National Hurricane Center giving both areas low-end chances for development over the next three to five days.

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